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Prediction for CME (2025-01-21T10:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-01-21T10:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36532/-1
CME Note: Bright CME and faint shock to the SE in STEREO COR2A, not yet observed in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 due to a downlink gap except for a very few late SOHO C3 frames. The source is an M3.3 class flare from AR 3967 peaking at 2025-01-21T10:39Z. Starting around 2025-01-21T09:42Z, a wide area of the disk East and South of AR 13967 brightens up in SDO AIA 304/GOES SUVI 304 with observed filament ejecta fanning out to the SE. Field line movement and extensive dimming, with an EUV wave, over this area also observed in SDO AIA 171/193/211. Partially overlaps with far-sided CME: 2025-01-21T09:12Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-01-25T06:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-01-21T17:23Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 537
Longitude (deg): E40
Latitude (deg): S38
Half-angular width (deg): 43

Notes: Possible glance, bulk of CME passes behind and below Earth orbit.
Space weather advisor: LG/TG

Lead Time: 76.50 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2025-01-22T01:30Z

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